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06 May 2016 @ 08:22 pm
Derby analysis  
Here's my look at the Derby field. With so many horses, traffic problems become a major issue, leading me to favour the stalkers like Gun Runner over closers like Exaggerator.

1 Trojan Nation - easy to toss
2 Suddenbreakingnews - don't think he'll outclose Creator. Am prepared to be wrong.
3 Creator - really like him and hope he stays at 10-1. Hoping he gets the run. Rank: 1
4 Mo Tom - has never done much for me. Just watch though: he'll get the perfect trip this time and sneak into the money. If it happens, oh well
5 Gun Runner - expect him to be sitting in the 2nd tier with a great rail trip. Will need to pounce quickly to get out when the speed collapses. Think he can do it. Rank: 2
6 My Man Sam - gotta throw some good horses out
7 Oscar Nominated - no chance to win, though expect he'll make up a ton of ground in the last 1/16th
8 Lani - who knows? Too many question marks
9 Destin - don't hold with the 8 week layoff
10 Whitmore - meh
11 Exaggerator - I see him being 6 or 7 wide around the turn, or being forced to check. Think he may emulate his daddy and finish a nice 3rd or 4th, but can't see him getting the roses. Rank: 5
12 Tom's Ready - meh
13 Nyquist - deserved favorite but I can't bet him until he's at least 9-2 given how close this field is. Fairly sure he'll be in the money, assuming Gutierrez avoids a speed duel. Rank: 3
14 Mohaymen - have visions of him having a meltdown and going for the lead despite all of Alvarado's efforts. Really wish Kiaran had pushed him harder in preparation for the race. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong!
15 Outwork - I know Todd has done some work to get him to rate but I don't see it, especially with the need to get good position into the first turn. Toss.
16 Shagaf - should be my horse given I picked this trainer and jockey for my RTKD stable, but that Wood Memorial really shook me. Leave out
17 Mor Spirit - may be overbet
18 Majesto - a huge, late foal (and a Tiznow at that), who has been improving rapidly and stands to improve even more. Loved the way he splashed home in the FD. My longshot pick
19 Brody's Cause - have liked him since his debut but just don't know if he can outclose the rest. Rank: 4
20 Danzing Candy - last?

As much as I like Nyquist and Exaggerator, I'm going to leave them out of most bets and concentrate on Creator, Gun Runner and Brody's Cause, with some money on Majesto for the hell of it. Best luck to all and here's hoping all the horses come home safely.
chatchien: Cat Empresschatchien on May 8th, 2016 01:46 am (UTC)
And the Winner Is...

I always enjoy your Horse Posts. Good run down (oh these horse race puns just write themselves) on the field.
Jenjlvsclrk on May 8th, 2016 03:16 am (UTC)
Re: And the Winner Is...
Baby Nyquist!!!!

I knew he was the best but talked myself out of betting on him. I think I got seduced by the gorgeous spots on Creator: